Showing posts with label Groupon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Groupon. Show all posts
0

The Wall Street Casino

Are the banks in U.S still not "too big to fail"? Ask anyone on the Wall Street and none will accept the bubble in making. They keep on showing there is enough of money chasing investment opportunities particularly those risky ones but no money for job creation in this land of opportunities . Groupon's first mover advantage wont last long but still valued in excess of $25 Billion. Very soon their stock certificates out of the impending IPO will be used as wallpaper in the purchaser's drawing room. Its now a decade since S&P has been delivering zero returns. US is bankrupt but rejoicing at the gay legalization.

From manufacturing to finance to speculation - Welcome to the new world order where few make money like bandits and every market crash is followed by latest rounds of head-scratching and pleas for reforms to start it all over again. Finding new ways to legally and directly or indirectly steal money from the public - is that what they are supposed to do in their cushy suits? A silicon valley techie thinks out of the box and transcend the old ways of doing the same things while a Wall Street wizard also thinks out of the box understanding that playing within the old rules of uncertain profits and slowly accruing returns will no more quench their ever carving thirst. And came the move from the stocks , valuations and investments to the psyche , fear of losing out,  herd mentality, salesmanship, flaws within the old rules and greed disrupting ethical standards and exploiting the loopholes. 

A hacker finds flaws in people's security systems to get privileged control while these guys at Wall Street find flaws in public nerve to mint their excesses. In both the cases, the revelations can be embarrassing to those exploited and hence almost gets unreported and untraced even though sharing the exploit would be helpful for various others to avoid the same in the future.

From the great depression to the great recession and still going strong. The casino is on , sanctioned by the government and funded by the poor taxpayers. More like a legalized mafia , very much like Las Vegas.  When will it stop?
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Porter's Five Forces : Social Coupon/Deal Market



Future of such markets:
  • More growth in space
  • Consolidation and verticalization
  • Integration with traditional media bundle and SEO/SEM
  • Emergence of Group Buying Technology Solutions Providers (Close.ly, GroupCommerce , Offerex)
  • Increase in offer aggregation (The DealMap, Yipit, Aubaines.org)
  • Emergence of offer re-selling (Secondary market) - At sites such as Lifesta.com and CoupRecoup.com , people can sell their unused deals/coupons bought from companies like Groupon.
  • Emergence of niche players(eg : T-Shirts , Travel deals)

10 Reasons why GroupOn will struggle


Yes please don't get carried away with its US $ 15 Billion of IPO valuation ,  they are into an Easy to imitate , Difficult to Sustain business:
  1. Location Based Services will be able to provide instantaneous on the move deals.
  2. Easily imitable: Comparable services: StealTheDeal, 8coupons, BuyWithMe, Coupang (S. Korea), Half Off Depot, Jasmere.com, LivingSocial,  Thrillist, Woot, OfficeArrow , Groupilicious, CouponYou, My Little Deuce Coupon, CouponDeville, Grouper With A Squeeze of Lemon , Valpak
  3. It cannot be a niche player while others can be. Travelzoo launched a Groupon-like daily deals Clone and is now valued at $400 Million after just 4 months
  4. With more players, the margins/cuts/commissions will go down.
  5. Groupon.cn – .How will you beat this Chinese copycat mastery?
  6. Deals will get commoditized : As a user, it doesn't matter from where the email come from whether Groupon or LivingSocial or from anywhere else. With the large number of deals offered, they can just use a daily deal aggregator such as http://www.shopway.com to check the available deals in one go. 
  7. At the end what it does is just lead generation, a new customer acquisition channel like non-deal CRM platforms such as  Facebook and Twitter. It can be alternatively done by Google Adwords , yellow pages. There are ample substitutes once the price convergence of the deals will occur.
  8. There are more empowering models coming up -Dealo, which plans to allow merchants to post their deals, is a free service and allows the merchant to handle the deal completely from managing the discount amount to setting their own caps and the duration the deal will last (unlike Groupon).
  9. The cat will be out soon ! Majority of deals are marked up higher and then discounted. So they are never a big deal in any way.
  10. Groupon makes public the amount of money saved by its customer but ask it how many of the merchants are actually making money out of it. Majority of them are just aggressively trying to acquire 'lost leaders' buyers through the hot-credit-card-ready leads generated by Groupon. The challenge is to lock-in these acquired customers.
What Groupon can do?
  • Deal Personalization: Extension of contextual advertising.
  • Regional sites, rapid market penetration to get the first mover advantage.
  • Evolve as Social CRM provider through Groupon Stores.
0

Network Effects Revisited

In network effect , the utlity of a product increases as more and more number of people use it. So the more ubiqitious the product becomes , the more valuable it is. Example includes mobiles , telephones, fax machines , Social Networks, web marketplace like eBay, Groupon (the higher the free subscribers the better are the chances to meet the minimum guaranteed number of purchasers for the deal to actually materialize),  Wikipedia, Stock Exchanges(yes , as the number of participants increases the transaction cost decreases). 

What about SQL?? (Why all/most databases use this as their basic language?)

The initial value of any of the examples mentioned above depends on the quality of its offering and not on the number of people using it. This is the value generated by the offering when there are no other users.The initial quality is the key to atract the users which calls on other users also to join say through word of mouth. The product overall value accelerates once a certain critical mass joins in and derives value from interactions/connections with each other.

Drawbacks

Firstly,  it leads to congestion and slowly after one point of time the value of the product starts diminishing. This happens in case of telephone/mobiles networks wherein if the infrastructure is not scaled at appropriate time , then each additional user will increase the load on the network and decreases the value for other users. Is this what we are seeing happening with the Google Search engine. As pointed out in the article 'Why We Desperately Need a New (and Better) Google' , the search engine has become more of a jungle with spammers and marketers hunting around with their Ads and Sponsored sites and hence losing out on value. Thats what happened with Bill Gates who left Facebook due to huge number of friend requests pouring in; for him the value of the network started decreasing. Social Networking sites like Facebook surely will need to go an extra mile to safeguard the 'Spirit of Community' which will get destroyed with increasing number of friends/followers in one's network. The network will no more be social but again the same jungle of spammers and advertisers what Google is today.

The other drawback is that it causes vendor lock-ins wherein the customer becomes dependent on the provider for products and services and is unable to switch to another vendor. Microsoft has been doing that with its office products which required one to have MS Office to remain compatible with others many using it until Google Docs and OpenOffice's of the world came up and era of Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) got some momentum..

If there are no competitors to a successful network , then the monopolism sets in and the network provider starts hiking its charges and put restrictions. These restrictions out of the monopoly nowadays are inspiring many firms with new revenue model. The best example being Linkedin which restricts almost everything except your capability to add connections(that will come soon ! its just the beginning , let them face some 'congestion'. There is certainly going to be an inflection point where each new user will make the life harder for existing users. Imagine twitters and facebooks of the world charging you for making a status update.What will happen then? Multiple networks will then compete on an even similar basis, the core product value will again gain prominence. Eg: There are more fax machines in the world now than ever before but its value has decreased because of other substitutes like email, scanner, faster courier , etc. So the numbers have lost value here while the product is inherently losing out with modern ways of communications).

And if there are competitors to a network , then the silos sets in wherein each player starts setting their own standards and benchmarks. Thats what we are seeing in Mobile Operating Systems war - from Nokia and , Blackberry to Google and Apple all players trying to form their own community which promotes their distinguised OS.

One other interesting drawback can be that the markets can adopt an inferior product in place of some superior alternative just because of the network effects. For example i feel that Macs PCs are superior to Windows one but still its the Windows who are dominating the market. Same case with Apple iOS and Android and its the Android which seems to be winning the race. And governments/regulators do realize that since markets cannot be matured enough to choose the best standards/practices/products/networks , its the government who should take the lead to investigate and monitor the firms intention of making any offerings. Hence we see so many antitrust actions !
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Take this one now - Consider IT as an offering , is its value increasing with more and more of its adoption. If we go by Nicholas Carr argument , then slowly its becoming a commodity with no strategic advantage. So does it mean that IT doesn't have any network effect?

0

Groupon Business Model

Groupon started as a Wordpress Blog and is now a full fledged jewel in the Social Shopping arena. It is one the recent example of Lean startups which uses Customer Development process having more frequent contacts with end users and hence avoiding incorrect market needs and assumptions at the earliest.Such startups minimizes the work and time required to help the business to find the what attracts the market. Its always better to test the market first before scaling your product offering and that is what Groupon did.

Google in its bid to catch up with the lost social web space had reportedly bid for the Groupon acquisition offering it around $6 Billion at the start of this month but the offer got rejected. Groupon has now gone for a fresh round of funding which have valued it around $4.75 Billion currently.

With social media on rise , online collective action and fundraising activities is picking up the pace. Groupon bargains for huge discounts with businesses in local cities by guaranteeing them a certain minimum number of takers and send the deals to its subscribers. If the required number of takers are achieved then everyone gets the deal otherwise none gets it. Its a quick win for all - Groupon gives the businesses large number of customers in quick time and users pass the deal to many others enabling them to reach the minimum guarantee numbers. The best part is that the overall process is very fair and democratic. If the numbers are not reached then Groupon don't charge any penny from anyone. And even after the purchase , if the customer feels that he/she has been let down by the offer, a refund is done without any questions being asked. And they were smart to go local rather than offering national products such as a software or TV as Amazons, Tescos and Walmarts of the world are already providing deals on such items and they have ample muscle power to drive volume-based discounts. And you cannot see the deals rightaway on landing their page. The first thing which they do is to get people sign-up and subscribe to their mailing list for the daily deals. The current count is about 10 million subscribers and this small pie of the social media space has made the company almost touch the billion dollar sales.The game seems to have just begun.

There are pitfalls too. Firstly , there is an uncertainty on the actual number of people turning up for the deal, so if the number exceeds to what the respective business can cater to then it impacts the overall delivery and service. Secondly, the shoppers fall into the deal trap, thereby at times buying stuffs which they normally wont do and wont use. Third problem is that the overall model can be easily imitated. Amazon has been already funding the current biggest competitor of the Groupon - 'Living Social' and will surely acquire(to integrate with itself) it once the things scale up for good. In fact , the model is so simple that Groupon.com domain name was already bought by one individual based in UK for same objectives/plans and he twice denied the sale offer from the Groupon founders who finally got the trademark for Groupon which extended to UK as well and hence were able to buy the domain in third attempt for around $250,000.

By the way , will you call the model as a click and mortar one?
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