We have a saying in India - "Nayi nayi Dulhan sabhi ko achi lagti he" (Everyone like the new bride). Can the same be said about Facebook now when the number of FB users in U.S has gone down for second straight months? No doubt that Facebook brought us closer to our friends , made the web world a small place to hang around but also brought the need of managing our online image and hence the need to self-censor. Plus those frequent irritating updates on your newsfeed from one or two individuals in your list making you think if you really want to know about all their activities until you want to sleep with them.
There is no doubt that facebook growth at some point of time will moderate given the fact that it depends on the internet penetration of any given country. The law of diminishing factor will start playing its part. So it should not lose sleep over the stagnating number of users but rather focus on how much average time its users are spending on Facebook, how much it can engage its users. If this user time is decreasing or stagnating , then it should certainly be wake up call as it will directly impact its advertising revenue. It is still a smaller player than Google as far as the ads revenue are concerned but certain to go through the adoption curve which perhaps would tilt the revenue share the other way.
At times, people get confused and start valuing a web company on the basis of the extent to which it engage its users.For example , Angry Bird - the game is inherently very engaging and the player gets so immersed in it that he/she gives little notice to the ads ; so it still proves to be a bad business. Now take Google, they increased the value of their Adwords by creating several non-immersive pages around google.com that makes us sitting on its sites for far more time than say when Google started. The adwords remained the same , the ads quality is more or less the same, even the way they try to get noticed is same but still we are seeing more of them with more opportunities to click on them. And then they introduced the win-win adsense and started syndicating the ads to billions and now with Android , they have captured the mobiles space.
So here is the lesson for Facebook - Invent multitude of products and features as done by Google. But they have not done it yet. Facebook.com needs be more than a place where we can share some updates, chat a bit, tag friends, upload some photos, and do a bit of gaming - not one where we come only to refresh ourselves , sort of entertain ourselves unlike Google where we go for our needs - searching , gmailing , sharing docs et all.
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